As the average price of homes reach £367,760 in September, the housing market has seen monthly improvements for the longest stretch since 2016. The Bank of England is working to keep inflation under control as it is predicted to continue rising in the next months and reach 10% this year, the highest level since 1982. Interest rates have increased to 2.25% in an effort to combat inflation, signalling the beginning of a period of recession. Currently, according to experts, including estate agents in Winchester, ultra-low interest rates have made mortgage borrowing more affordable, causing the housing bubble to expand and making it difficult for renters across the UK to become homeowners. First-time buyers, people intending to relocate or sell their homes, and investors in real estate are all seeking clarification on how this would affect them and whether higher loan rates will help slow the nation’s housing market.
Will the interest rate remain at 2.25%, with inflation reaching 8.6%?
On whether interest rates will remain at 2.25%, experts disagree. Higher interest rates have historically been a successful macroeconomic tool for the Bank of England to control inflation. Therefore, some analysts assert that interest rates will need to increase to as much as 5% to handle our present inflation, which is currently at 8.6% and is predicted to increase to 10%. On the other hand, some analysts predict that interest rates will remain low for a while and then increase, although not by more than 5%. They assert that this is the result of government borrowing during the pandemic, which has increased the national debt of the nation.
If interest rates continue to rise, many rental properties will probably stop producing as much money because the increased cost of borrowing has eaten into their cash flow. Despite the fact that landlords may not actually be generating a profit, on paper they still are because of how profits are determined. As a result, in order to pay the tax each year, landlords will have to dig deeper into their pockets. The rising taxes and higher interest rates on real estate are expected to cause some property owners to sell their properties, according to experts.
Why Might Inflation Benefit Property Investors?
For the appropriate people, inflation in the housing market might be advantageous. If we as people are in debt, inflation may manifest itself in the most advantageous way possible. When investing in real estate, you borrow money to pay for the purchase. For real estate investors, financing the investment in the property typically involves borrowing money. Typically, purchasers receive a 75% loan-to-value mortgage and may provide a 25% down payment. A £200,000 property will receive a £50,000 personal loan in addition to a £150,000 mortgage. If we had an interest-only mortgage over time, we pay the interest each month yet have a £150,000 balance.
Property values typically double every ten years
The property you purchased for £200,000 may cost £800,000 in 20 years, but your mortgage will still be £150,000. If you sell that house in 20 years, you will be required to pay capital gains taxes (unless it is your own home), but even after paying the tax, you will still have enough money to pay down the mortgage and have extra money. If you own several homes, the proceeds from the sale of one property can be used to pay off the mortgages on the others as you try to amass a portfolio free of debt. As a result, inflation makes investing in real estate financially feasible. Higher interest rates are one danger, but this can be avoided with a fixed-term mortgage.
How Will Rising Interest Rates Impact Those Purchasing New Homes?
For first-time buyers wanting to purchase their first home, the rise in housing costs and shortage of homes since the pandemic has made things extremely difficult. According to statistics, the UK requires 300,000 additional homes annually due to the current scarcity. Half of the quantity is not being built at this time. According to data made public by Halifax, there are few indications that the UK real estate market would slow down in April before the Bank of England hikes interest rates. House prices are rising 0.7% month over month, which is the longest run of increases in six years, despite worries about rising living expenses and significant increases in energy costs.
According to Halifax, as more people migrate out of apartments in cities and into larger properties in more rural locations, the “competition for space,” which began during the epidemic, is expected to continue. For purchasers wishing to move into flats in larger cities, though, this is expanding their options.
Therefore, the housing market is anticipated to slow down as rising inflation rates necessitate higher interest rates. However, because there is still a shortage of homes, house costs are not expected to decline. There are presently 61% more prospective buyers than the five-year average.
